The opening act of March Madness ignites a frenzy unlike any other in American sports. With 32 elimination games crammed into two whirlwind days, each holds the potential for an instant classic. However, for many, the allure of non-stop basketball clashes with the realities of daily life.
The Wall Street Journal steps in to be your guide through the madness, helping you prioritize the most captivating matchups. By leveraging the power of data, we've unlocked the secrets to maximizing your March Madness experience.
We analyzed a decade's worth of first-round data, pinpointing the games most likely to leave you hanging on the edge of your seat. Enter the "Edge of Your Seat" score, a bespoke metric that blends five key ingredients for basketball drama:
Neck-and-Neck Battles: This factor measures the total time where the score difference remains within a single point.
Lead Changes and Ties: Every shift in momentum, from lead change to nail-biting tie, is factored in.
Offensive Explosions: The total points scored fuel the excitement meter.
Epic Comebacks: When underdogs claw their way back, the tension soars. This metric captures the magnitude of the winning team's comeback.
Upset Alerts: We consider seeding disparities and pre-game win probabilities to assess the likelihood of an unexpected result.
After crunching the numbers, a clear winner emerges for those short on time but hungry for drama: 7 vs. 10 seed matchups. Historically, they produce the most thrilling first-round encounters based on the "Edge of Your Seat" score.
This year, four such matchups hold the promise of electrifying basketball. Here's your prime-time viewing guide:
Thursday, 4:30 PM ET: Dayton (7) vs. Nevada (10)
Dayton, out of the tournament since 2017, yearns for a return to glory. Nevada aims to spoil their comeback bid. This promises to be a tightly contested battle in Salt Lake City.
Thursday, 10:05 PM ET: Washington State (7) vs. Drake (10)
Washington State, finally back in the dance after 2008, faces the Missouri Valley Conference champions, Drake. Don't underestimate the Bulldogs – a near-home-court advantage in Omaha, Nebraska (just two hours from campus) could fuel an upset.
Thursday/Friday (Dependent on First Four Results):
Texas (7) vs. Colorado State/Virginia (Winner) – This battle promises offensive fireworks, regardless of the opponent.
Florida (7) vs. Colorado/Boise State (Winner) – The Gators face an unpredictable First Four winner, but the "Edge of Your Seat" metric suggests a close contest.
The "Edge of Your Seat" score extends its value beyond first-round matchups. It also reveals the teams with the least dramatic seasons, allowing you to strategically plan your viewing schedule.
The South Region's top seed, Houston, boasts the most uneventful season in Division I, according to the "Edge of Your Seat" score. Their dominance translated to lopsided victories, leaving viewers with little suspense. Their first-round matchup against Longwood on Friday night at 9:20 PM ET might be a good time to catch up on some sleep.
Armed with the "Edge of Your Seat" score, you can navigate the opening rounds of March Madness like a seasoned pro. Maximize your entertainment value by prioritizing the 7 vs. 10 seed matchups and strategically allocating your viewing time. Remember, March Madness is all about relishing the drama, the upsets, and the unexpected. So, embrace the madness, but do it with an edge!
