Financial markets have collectively held their breath as a series of economic indicators released over the past week painted a concerning picture. Consumer prices in February, while not skyrocketing, inched higher than anticipated. Retail sales for the month also fell short of expectations, with downward revisions for January further dampening spirits. Producer prices, adding to the unease, continued their upward trend. A preliminary consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan capped off the week with a decline, dashing hopes for even a slight rise.
Taken together, this data cocktail has investors spooked by the specter of stagflation – a dreaded scenario where economic growth stagnates while inflation remains stubbornly high. The prospect of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this summer, once priced in by markets, has dimmed considerably. The likelihood of a June cut has tumbled from 57.4% to 50.4% in just a week, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Furthermore, the odds of the Fed staying on hold through its July meeting have surged from a meager 8.1% to a much more significant 24.1%.
Adding fuel to the fire, Bank of America strategists issued a stark warning, declaring a shift from a "Goldilocks" economy (one with just-right growth and inflation) to a potential stagflationary environment. They define this as growth dipping below 2% while inflation lingers between 3% and 4%. They suggest strategies that might benefit from such a scenario, including investments in gold, cryptocurrencies, and cash.
However, a broader view is essential. While growth may be losing some steam, it remains positive overall. Inflation, although persistent, has cooled considerably compared to recent highs. Economists at Goldman Sachs, factoring in the latest inflation readings, have slightly adjusted their estimates for the core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. They now predict a 2.8% year-over-year increase in February, unchanged from January but significantly lower than the 3.2% recorded in November. Additionally, they project first-quarter GDP growth to come in at 1.7% on an annualized basis, down from their earlier estimate of 2.1%.
Positive developments on the supply side offer a further glimmer of hope. Industrial production rose slightly in February, reversing a January decline. While a warmer-than-usual February caused a dip in utility output, manufacturing output and business equipment production both showed encouraging growth. Analysts at Capital Economics interpret this as a positive sign for equipment investment in the first quarter, a key driver of long-term economic health.
In essence, the US economy appears to be transitioning from a period of rapid disinflation to a slower, more gradual decline in price levels. Meanwhile, business investment is stepping up to partially fill the gap left by a cooling consumer spending sector. Investors will be closely watching the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy-setting meeting, where the release of new economic and rate projections is expected to shed light on the central bank's response to this evolving economic landscape.
While concerns about stagflation are understandable, the current situation is far from dire. The Fed faces a delicate balancing act – addressing the slowdown without compromising progress on inflation. The coming weeks and months will be crucial in determining the effectiveness of the Fed's strategies and the ultimate trajectory of the US economy.
