Island Nation at a Crossroads: Choosing the Right Weapons to Deter or Thwart a Potential Chinese Assault
The war in Ukraine casts a long shadow on Taiwan's defense strategy. Images of Ukrainian forces employing "David's slingshot" tactics – nimble anti-tank missiles and drones – against the Russian juggernaut have sparked a fierce debate within Taiwan. However, initial successes don't paint the whole picture. As the conflict grinds on, Ukraine's yearning for "Goliath's weaponry" – advanced fighter jets and heavy tanks – becomes undeniable. Taiwan, facing a similar potential Goliath in China, grapples with a critical question: can it truly rely solely on asymmetrical warfare to repel an invasion?
This dilemma has been a simmering tension in discussions between Taipei and Washington. For years, US officials have championed an "asymmetrical warfare" doctrine for Taiwan, urging investment in cost-effective, mobile weaponry – shoulder-fired missiles, drones, and sea mines. The strategy aims to cripple a Chinese amphibious assault at close quarters with a sustained barrage of smaller attacks.
This approach holds undeniable appeal. Weaker nations throughout history, from guerrillas to outmatched militaries, have successfully employed such tactics. Ukraine's initial successes against Russian armor using Javelin missiles exemplify its potential. However, the conflict's evolution raises unsettling questions for Taiwan. As the war drags on, Ukraine faces the stark reality of needing "Goliath's arsenal." The lack of heavy weaponry like F-16 fighter jets and M1 Abrams tanks has hampered attempts to dislodge entrenched Russian forces.
Taiwan fears a similar scenario. If China establishes a blockade around the island or secures a beachhead, the effectiveness of short-range, mobile weaponry diminishes significantly. In such a situation, argue Taiwanese defense officials and analysts, Taiwan would desperately need a more robust arsenal of heavy weaponry to hold back the Chinese advance.
"Sole reliance on an asymmetrical approach," warns I-Chung Lai, a former foreign affairs official, "would turn Taiwan into a battlefield of attrition." Lai, currently with the Taiwan Thinktank research organization, underscores the immense challenge facing Taiwan's incoming president, Lai Ching-te, who assumes office in May.
The past few years have witnessed a shift in Taiwan's procurement strategy under US influence, with a greater emphasis on acquiring asymmetrical weapons like Harpoon anti-ship missiles, HIMARS rocket launchers, and mines. However, the Taiwanese military traditionally favored heavy weapons, envisioning a prolonged conflict with China. President-elect Lai could potentially push for faster delivery of previously approved weapons like M1 Abrams tanks, aligning Taiwan's defense strategy more closely with its military's long-held beliefs.
Under outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan did move closer to the US stance on asymmetrical warfare, placing substantial orders for weapons like land-launched Harpoon missiles. However, fulfilling these orders has proven difficult for the US, raising concerns about Taiwan's ability to secure timely and adequate weaponry.
Taiwan stands at a crossroads. The war in Ukraine serves as a stark reminder that while asymmetrical warfare can disrupt and inflict initial damage, a robust conventional arsenal remains indispensable. For Taiwan, finding the right balance between David's agility and Goliath's strength is crucial for deterring, or if necessary, repelling a potential Chinese invasion. The incoming leadership's ability to navigate this complex terrain will determine Taiwan's future defense posture.
